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Up in Smoke: What Is The Future For The Global Tobacco Industry? 

Globally the cigarette manufacturing industry continues to battle a four-pronged assault on its growth prospects. Rising consumer health consciousness has hit smoking rates in developed and emerging markets alike, putting the breaks on global industry growth rates. An increasingly mainstream and dogmatic anti-smoking lobby has also served to dent sales, helping to drive through prohibitive legislation and raise awarenessof the dangers of smoking.

Ongoing government tax hikes-an increasingly accepted form of revenue-raising given the number of health-conscious consumers turning their backs on smoking-are similarly proving an enemy to the industry, as is the still-strong illegalt rade for tobacco products.

Facing up to the challenges of a so-called 'dying industry'has led to rapid industry consolidation, with the big three-Philip Morris International, BritishAmerican Tobacco and Japan Tobacco International-controlling around 45% of the global cigarette market. Presently, however, these giants, and their smaller local peers, are having to deal with a new challenge in addition to the aforementioned daily hurdles-a consumer-confidence crippling global recession. In 2009, BMI is forecasting a global economic contraction of 2.5%.

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