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• FDA Regulations On Tobacco Could Take 3 Years 

Smokers and tobacco users will have to wait months, perhaps up to three years, to feel a substantial impact from federal oversight of the tobacco industry, analysts say. . . .

From the consumer end, the initial cost of FDA regulation is projected at 1 to 2 cents a pack, likely beginning in October. Even when the Center for Tobacco Products is fully operational by 2012-13, the cost is not projected to exceed 7 cents a pack, according to research by UBS Investment Research.

By comparison, smokers already have had to absorb a 62-cent increase in the federal excise tax this year.

However, FDA regulation is likely to spur consolidation by driving up compliance costs for smaller discount manufacturers.

“It will force them to register with the FDA and test their products,“ said Adam Spielman, an analyst with Citigroup Global Markets Inc. “It probably will make it impossible to launch new brands and lines without a series of tests that will be expensive for them.

“It probably will require them to use tobacco that has been treated in complicated ways to reduce certain constituents.“ . . .

Spielman said that despite stricter requirements for introducing tobacco products under the FDA, he believes regulation will not undercut R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co.‘s smokeless innovation programs. The law requires premarket approval for new products, those introduced after Feb. 15, 2007.

“We disagree with the consensus view, which is that the legislation will harm Reynolds because it will make it harder (or nearly impossible) to introduce new products like Camel Crush,“ Spielman said.

“This is because the rules on new products do not require sign-off from the FDA if the product is substantially equivalent health-wise to existing products.“

Camel Snus were introduced before February 2007, said Maura Payne, a spokeswoman for Reynolds. “There were also substantially equivalent snus products sold in the United States prior to Camel Snus.“

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