Jump to full article: Dow Jones via Nasdaq, 2008-03-25
Intro: The future of Big Tobacco in the U.S. is looking hazy.
Tobacco companies have been steadily selling fewer cigarettes in the U.S., but that rate of decline is likely to accelerate over the next few years. Those declines will mean the biggest cigarette companies could be in for a much tougher fight for their survival and growth in the U.S.
Altria Group Inc. (MO) - which at the end of this week will spin off its Philip Morris International business and transform itself into a domestic tobacco company - expects unit volumes of the overall U.S. cigarette industry to decline by 2.5% to 3% a year for the next few years. That decline is steeper than the historical rate of about 2%. Altria estimates industry volumes, or the number of cigarettes sold, fell about 4% in 2007.
"We have highlighted accelerated volume declines as one of the bigger risks the industry faces," said Janice Hofferber, a vice president at Moody's Investors Service who follows tobacco and consumer products. Historically, tobacco companies have been able to raise prices fairly easily, but "there is a limit to the pricing flexibility these companies have."
The weaker volumes will mean that cigarette companies will need to focus more on cost cuts, and to dabble in new kinds of tobacco products.
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