THE MORTALITY COST TO SMOKERS (PDF) 

5. Conclusion

The economic value of the premature mortality due to smoking dwarfs the purchase price of cigarettes. The mortality cost per pack for men is $222 in 2006 dollars. For women, the cost is much lower than that for men but is still large, with a cost per pack of $94 in 2006 dollars.

The sources of the gender difference include the greater mortality effect of smoking on men, the nearer term impact of these mortality losses for men, and the greater VSL for men due to their higher wage rate.

The substantial costs per pack stem from two principal factors. First, the discounted expected value of the mortality risks of smoking is high because smoking increases the mortality risk throughout a smoker's life, not just at the end of the smoker's expected lifetime. Second, using VLS estimates by age to value the mortality cost indicates that the value of this loss is quite substantial. Notwithstanding their smoking decision, smokers have a high VSL throughout their lives, which in turn implies that their premature mortality imposes enormous personal costs.

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