Daily Doc: BAT, Mar 19, 1976: Potential Threats to Cigarettes
Daily Doc: Potential Threats to Cigarettes
Title: The Product in the Early 1980s
BAT, Mar 19, 1976
Bates #: 19760329110069974/9982
February 15, 2001
In a fascinating discussion, this British-American Tobacco (BAT) document considers future product developments that may threaten sales of cigarettes. The document reveals the "drug" mind-set that BAT has towards its product, and talks about potential rival products that could cause them to lose control of their loyal market...
Of interest is the speculation that marijuana could be viewed as a rival to nicotine usage, or even incorporated into cigarettes if it should become legal:
"Forecasts based upon the emergence of a rival to the cigarette are rare, but the use of marijuana and nicotine-containing chewing-gum, as discussed later, have been suggested..."and,
"Nearly ten years ago, a French paper ... discussed numerous plants which might replace tobacco. The only material which has received a lot of attention is marijuana... In the illicit use of marijuana, relatively large doses of the active principal are involved. If the use of such drugs was legalised, one avenue for exploitation would be the augmentation of cigarettes with near sub-liminal levels of the drug."BAT also noted that the link between smoking and disease has not deterred most people from smoking. More of a threat to sales than the spectre of disease, they say, is the "increasing tendency to portray smoking as socially undesirable." To combat this threat, they speculate that public relations will be more effective than science:
"It will not be easy to combat this threat. Good Public Relations activities are likely to be more effective than science-based research."There is also a discussion about how they could lose control over people if they allow nicotine levels to get too low in cigarettes:
"... Taking a long-term view, there is a danger in the current trend of lower and lower cigarette deliveries - i.e. the smoker will be weaned away from the habit....if the nicotine delivery is reduced below a threshold 'satisfaction' level, then surely smokers will question more readily why they are indulging in an expensive habit. .... [W]e should be aware of the long-term dangers of following the crowd into ultra-low nicotine deliveries."But most chilling is the notion that they would be threatened if people could find an effective way to control their own brain activity without benefit of drugs:
"...smoking (largely via nicotine) may assist people to control the level of activity in the brain to a desired level. Other means of such control represent, therefore, a rival to the cigarette. There is an increasing amount of evidence ... that subjects can control their levels of brain activity, without recourse to drugs, if they are given information on the level of brain activity (biofeedback)....such techniques might be used by anti-smoking clinics...We are aware from some unpublished work...of indications that only occasional practice with a modern biofeedback machine is required to enable a subject to exert significant control over his level of brain activity...."And last but not least is a statement both acknowledging smoke toxicity and speculating that the company could benefit because it presents them with opportunities for "cigarette designs which offer the image of 'health reassurance.' " :
"...Looking further down the road, the possibility exists that, as inhalation tests are developed and accepted, then filters might offer a selective means of controlling smoke toxicity...Well before that date, however, opportunities exist for filter and cigarette designs which offer the image of "health re-assurance."...
CITATION
Title: The Product in the Early 1980s
Type of Document: N/A
Author: SJG
Company: British-American Tobacco Company (BAT)
Recipient: N/A
Date: 19760329
Site: Tobacco Documents Online
Page Count: 9
Bates No. 110069974/9982
URL: http://www.tobaccodocuments.org/view.cfm?docid=TE11386&source=MNTE&ShowImages=yes
Litigation Usage: Minnesota Trial Exhibit 11386
Search Criteria: found using search the term "Marijuana" on Tobacco Documents Online
QUOTES
In the past twenty years there have been several forecasts of the demise of the cigarette. The majority reflect little more than a popular, reasoned argument forecasting the reaction of our consumers to the continuous dual pressures of anti-smoking publicity and increasing taxation. Forecasts based upon the emergence of a rival to the cigarette are rare, but the use of marijuana and nicotine-containing chewing-gum, as discussed later, have been suggested.... In general, the smoker has shown marked resilience in resisting these pressures. So much so, that it raises the danger of complacency within the cigarette industry. Equally, of course, there is a danger of over-reaction to the forecasts of gloom and doom. This document considers the main threats to the smoking habit, the probable constraints on the type of product in the future, and draws attention to the undoubted opportunities which exist in the development of future products.
THREATS TO THE SMOKING HABIT
Probably the greatest threat lies not in further evidence of a direct link between smoking and disease, but the increasing tendency to portray smoking as a socially undesirable habit. Philip Morris have pointed out that upper-class smokers are more successful at quitting than are lower-class smokers... In the U.K., the trend... is towards smoking behaviour becoming a working-class habit.
It will not be easy to combat this threat. Good Public Relations activities are likely to be more effective than science-based research. Particularly in the U.S.A. and Germany, part of the attack lies in the attention being focused on the side-stream smoke, and exhortations are made to the non-smoker to demand his right to breathe clean air... Taking a long-term view, there is a danger in the current trend of lower and lower cigarette deliveries - i.e. the smoker will be weaned away from the habit. Sweden has a 25-year plan to produce a generation of non-smokers.... Nicotine is an important aspect of "satisfaction", and if the nicotine delivery is reduced below a threshold "satisfaction" level, then surely smokers will question more readily why they are indulging in an expensive habit. It is advocated that... we should be aware of the long-term dangers of following the crowd into ultra-low nicotine deliveries.
...Before outlining future constraints and opportunities for cigarette design, it remains to consider potential rivals. Included in the rivals are cigarettes in which nicotine has been replaced by an alternative pharmacological agent....These are potential rivals if cigarette smoking becomes socially undesirable. Sweets, or confectioneries containing nicotine carry the danger of over-dosage - nicotine is an acute poison. The interesting thought remains, however, that if a modern, product development team was charged with the job of designing an oral method of administering a five-minute dose of nicotine, it is unlikely that they would come up with a saliva-producing chewing product which also carried the problem of disposal of the soggy residue!
MODIFIED NICOTINE- It is theoretically possible to modify the chemical structure of nicotine and produce a compound which retains the positive attributes of nicotine but has a minimum of any adverse side-effects. Opinions vary on the chances of success. It is sometimes argued that a low probability is attached to the possibility of a compound producing a recognisable and attractive physiological response but also having a virtual absence of side-effects. When considering the mass sale of such a material it is clear that an immense amount of biological testing would be a necessary pre-requisite. On the other hand, if the net is widened to include compounds which are not based on nicotine... a technological forecast published in 1971... predicted that...[we]would see the introduction of new, safe drugs for mood control, crime reduction and personality control. A second technological forecast in 1974 ... suggested that drugs will be used in the late 1990s to ameliorate specific conditions and control specific unwanted behaviour.
ALTERNATIVE PLANT PRODUCTS: "Narcotic Plants" (5) lists some eighty species of plants containing hallucinogens, stimulants, inebriants and hypnotics. Nearly ten years ago, a French paper (6) discussed numerous plants which might replace tobacco. The only material which has received a lot of attention is marijuana... In the illicit use of marijuana, relatively large doses of the active principal are involved. If the use of such drugs was legalised, one avenue for exploitation would be the augmentation of cigarettes with near sub-liminal levels of the drug. It is argued that a distinction exists between drugs acting on levels of brain activity (such as nicotine and some other stimulants) and drugs acting on the state of consciousness (such 'as marijuana, LSD and other hallucinogens). In this sense, nicotine and marijuana are not direct competitors....
BIOFEEDBACK - As inferred in the above paragraph, smoking (largely via nicotine) may assist people to control the level of activity in the brain to a desired level. Other means of such control represent, therefore, a rival to the cigarette. There is an increasing amount of evidence ... that subjects can control their levels of brain activity, without recourse to drugs, if they are given information on the level of brain activity (biofeedback)....such techniques might be used by anti-smoking clinics... We are aware from some unpublished work...of indications that only occasional practice with a modern biofeedback machine is required to enable a subject to exert significant control over his level of brain activity. ...The class of smoker most susceptible would be members of the nicotine-dependent majority who have a high concern for health. Summarising the rivals, however, it is unlikely that a major, serious contender to the cigarette will be established in the period 1976-1985...
...Looking further down the road, the possibility exists that, as inhalation tests are developed and accepted, then filters might offer a selective means of controlling smoke toxicity...Well before that date, however, opportunities exist for filter and cigarette designs which offer the image of "health re-assurance."...
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